|
Market
|
Reference*
|
Forecast
|
Price
(at time of f/cast)
|
| US Dollar |
23-Jan-02 IU |
Short-term bearish on the Dollar |
118.84 |
| |
06-Jan-03 WMU |
The US$ will reach an intermediate-term
low during Q1 2003 |
102.42 |
| |
29-Jan-03 IU |
No longer short-term bearish, but
still expect the US$ to move much lower over the coming 12 months. |
99.30 |
| |
08-Apr-03 MA |
Short-term bearish on the US$ |
100.80 |
| |
07-May-03 IU |
The Dollar Index will drop to 80 by
the end of 2004 |
95.6 |
| |
28-May-03 MA |
No Longer short-term bearish on the
US$ |
92.9 |
| |
16-Jul-03 MA |
Short-term bearish on the US$ |
97.6 |
| Gold &
Gold Stocks |
27-Nov-00 WMU |
Short, medium and long-term bullish
on gold |
265.55 |
| |
06-Jan-03 WMU |
Gold will reach an intermediate-term
peak during Q1 2003 |
350.90 |
| |
17-Mar-03 WMU |
The correction in gold stocks ended
on 13th March. The gold price will possibly drop to the mid-320s before
a bottom is reached. |
336 |
| |
09-Apr-03 IU |
Gold has peaked for this year, but
gold stocks will reach new highs over the next several months |
325.50 |
| |
16-Apr-03 IU |
A reasonable target for gold over
the next 2 months is $360 |
324.70 |
| |
26-May-03 WMU |
The break above $360 sets up $390
and $410 as likely targets |
368 |
| |
04-Jun-03 IU |
Gold and gold stocks are about to
accelerate higher |
362.50 |
| |
25-Jun-03 IU |
Gold and gold stocks are likely to
pullback for a few months before major advances get underway. |
349 |
| |
22-Jul-03 MA |
A correction low for gold is probably
in place and a major advance has begun. |
351 |
| US Stocks |
21-Oct-02 WMU |
A push to a new recovery high over
the next month will be followed by a decline to new bear-market lows |
884 (S&P500) |
| |
23-Dec-02 WMU |
Another major decline has probably
begun |
896 (S&P500) |
| |
17-Mar-03 WMU |
A short-term bottom is probably in
place. A 1-2 month rally is likely before the downtrend resumes. |
833 (S&P500) |
| |
14-Apr-03 WMU |
There are signs that the rally has
ended and that the downtrend is about to resume |
868 (S&P500) |
| |
23-Apr-03 MA |
The market is close to an important
peak |
911 (S&P500) |
| |
11-Aug-03 WMU |
Peaks are probably already in place
for the NASDAQ100 Index and the S&P500/gold ratio, but a new recovery
high in the S&P500 Index is likely over the next few months |
980 (S&P500) |
| US T-Bonds |
30-Dec-02 WMU |
Bonds have broken out to the upside,
meaning that a move above the 2002 high is likely during the next 6 months. |
4.79% (yield) |
| |
17-Mar-03 WMU |
Bonds rallied to new highs and are
now likely to decline for 1-2 months. |
4.60% (yield) |
| |
14-Apr-03 WMU |
Bonds will continue to move in the
opposite direction to stocks. The increasing likelihood of new lows for
stocks means an increasing likelihood of new highs for bonds over the next
few months. |
4.95% (yield) |
| |
23-Jun-03 WMU |
If bonds haven't already reached a
major peak they are likely to do so by the final quarter of 2003. |
4.4% (yield) |
| |
07-Jul--03 WMU |
A major bond market peak is probably
in place |
|
| |
16-Jul-03 IU |
Bonds are probably close to an
intermediate-term low and will rally for a few months before resuming their
decline |
112 (nearest bond futures) |
| Commodities |
06-Mar-02 IU |
Short-term bullish on commodities |
197 (CRB) |
| Oil (WTI
Crude) |
25-Sep-02 IU |
The oil price is close to an intermediate-term
peak |
30.64 |
| |
24-Mar-03 WMU |
Upside and downside risks in the oil
price are now balanced |
26.91 |
| |
23-Jul-03 IU |
Short-term bearish on oil (expect
a move down to $22 over the next several months) |
$29.70 |
| Australian
Dollar |
09-Oct-02 IU |
A monthly close above 0.5750 would
indicate that a bull market had begun |
0.5450 |
| |
03-Feb-03 WMU |
The January 2003 monthly close above
0.5750 projects a move to 0.67 over the coming 12 months |
0.58 |
| |
07-Jul--03 WMU |
The A$ is close to an intermediate-term
peak |
0.68 |
| Japanese
Yen |
2002 Forecast |
2002 will be an 'up' year for the
Yen. |
|
| |
2003 Forecast |
2003 is likely to be a year of
consolidation for the Yen, but the longer-term trend is turning bullish |
|
| Japanese
Stocks |
02-Jun-03 WMU |
Long-term and short-term bullish
on Japan |
US$6.79 (EWJ) |
| Silver |
10-Dec-01 WMU |
Long-term bullish on silver |
$4.27 |
| |
09-Dec-02 WMU |
The odds have shifted in favour of
a rally over the next 1-2 months |
$4.60 |
| |
28-Apr-03 WMU |
Silver is likely to consolidate between
4.40 and 4.80 for a few more months |
|
| |
23-Jul-03 IU |
5.80 is a reasonable target over
the next few months |
$5.05 |
