Following is a summary of what we got right and what we got wrong.

The Stock Market
 

What we got right

What we got wrong

Mid-August 1999: We warned of substantial downside risk in the stock market over the coming 3 months [the market plummeted during Sep and Oct]. Early-October 1999: We forecast that the Y2K liquidity injection would boost the market after some additional short-term downside [the market bottomed 1 week later and then surged into year-end]. Late-January 2000: We said that, for the first time in many years, all the ducks were lined up in such a way as to bring about a severe correction in stock prices. Late-February 2000: We said that much of the potential downside in the majority of stocks had already occurred, but the NASDAQ highfliers will come back to earth over the next few weeks or months. [note - late-Feb 2000 turned out to be the bottom for the average stock] May 2000: We recommended doing some buying within 2 days of the bottom. Early-September 2000: We forecast that a stock market correction was about to begin [it did begin on schedule, but it was much steeper than we had expected]. October 2000: We turned long-term bearish on the stock market Late-December 2000 & early-January 2001: We recommended doing some buying in anticipation of a bear market rally [the market subsequently rallied sharply]. Late-January 2001: We recommended taking profits and buying put options in anticipation of the resumption of the bear market [the market reversed lower soon after] Late-March and early-April 2001: We suggested buying QQQ shares in the expectation that an important bottom was close at hand. [A sharp rally commenced within a few days of this recommendation]. Late-May 2001: We forecast that a correction would soon commence and recommended some profit-taking. September 2001: We recommended buying QQQ shares immediately following the sharp decline of 17-21 September [A sharp rally occurred over the ensuing 2 months] Late-January 2002: We correctly stated that the post-September-2001 rally had peaked  Late-June 2002: We forecast that the market would reach an intermediate-term bottom during the next 4 weeks, but that this would not be the final bottom [the market bottomed on 24th July].

October-November 2000: We under-estimated the duration of the downturn, having originally expected the decline that was correctly forecast to begin in early-September to be complete by the end of September. Mid-February 2001: We turned short-term bullish too early. We had originally expected that the downturn following the January rally would run its course in February and be followed by another bear market rebound. Instead, the market capitulated and created a more long-lasting bottom in early-April. April 2001: Although we did not think the ultimate bear market bottom had been reached, we incorrectly forecast that the March/April 2001 lows would hold during the remainder of 2001.

Gold and Gold Stocks
 

What we got right

What we got wrong

Mid-August 1999: We correctly forecast that a gold rally would commence by 21st September 1999. Mid-December 1999: We were cautious on gold due to the potential for Y2K-related liquidation in early-2000 [as expected, the gold price was weak during early-2000]. Late-October 2000: We turned short-term bullish on gold and gold stocks [within 2 weeks of the XAU's major long-term bottom]. Early-December 2000: We forecast that the S&P500/XAU ratio would fall to 10:1, from its level at that time of 27:1, within 2 years [As at September 2002 this forecast was very close to being achieved] Early-October 2001: We forecast that a correction in gold and gold stock prices had begun [The gold market pulled back over the following 2 months] Early-Feb 2002: We said that a major gold rally had begun May/June/July 2002: We warned on several occasions that a sharp (30% or greater) pullback in gold stock prices was about to occur [Gold stocks plunged by 30%-50% during the second half of July] Early-June 2002: We forecast that a gold market correction had begun and that it would last a maximum of 2-3 months [The gold price bottomed 2 months later]

January-April 2000: We forecast that gold would bottom in April 2000 [it made a short-term bottom in May, but hit lower levels later in 2000 and in early-2001] . June-October 2000: We under-estimated the severity and duration of the decline in gold stock prices. Late-November 2001: We forecast that the gold price would trade sideways for 3-4 months before a major rally commenced. [As it turned out the gold price began a strong rally in January of 2002]

Other Markets
 

What we got right

What we got wrong

January 2000: We correctly argued that the bond market was close to an intermediate-term bottom. Mid-November 2000: We forecast that bonds would peak in January 2001 [the actual peak turned out to be in March-2001, but the March peak was only marginally above the January peak]. Early-January 2001: We turned medium-term bearish on bonds. We were correctly bullish on commodity prices throughout 1999 and 2000, and in early-December 2000 we forecast that the commodities' bull market was near its end. During the final quarter of 2001 we turned medium- and long-term bullish on commodities. In early-March 2002 we turned short-term bullish on commodities just prior to a substantial multi-month rally. We turned short-term bearish on oil close to its peak in October 2000. Late-October 2000: We turned short and medium-term bearish on the Dollar within 2 days of an important peak. Early-July 2001: We said that a Dollar peak was imminent [the Dollar Index made a long-term peak at that time] October 2001: We correctly forecast that the Dollar had commenced an extended rebound. Late-January 2002: We turned short-term bearish on the Dollar 2 days prior to an important peak.

We under-estimated the extent of the Dollar rally during the first half of 2001 and incorrectly forecast Dollar reversals on two occasions. We under-estimated the strength of the bond rally in 2002 and prematurely turned short-term bearish on bonds in late-July of 2002.