Cash on the sidelines

The following is an extract from commentary that was posted at www.speculative-investor.com on 4th April 2002.

Cash on the sidelines

One of the arguments often put forward for a substantial stock market rally is that there is a huge amount of cash on the sidelines. In other words, there is a lot of money sitting in interest-bearing accounts, earning less than 2% per year, that is eventually going to flood into the stock market in search of better returns and drive stock prices much higher. The big assumptions here are that 1) people will, indeed, decide to choose a riskier asset over cash, and 2) that the assets they choose will be stocks or mutual funds.

The Japanese experience over the past 12 years has proven that the first assumption is, under certain conditions, invalid. The majority of people sometimes do prefer to keep their funds in an interest-bearing account, even if the interest rate is almost zero. But what are those conditions under which cash will be the investment of choice? Quite simply, when the prices of the main alternatives to cash are in long-term downtrends. This is because a rising price stimulates investment demand, not the other way around. If the price of any alternative to cash appears to be on a downward path then that alternative will not be an attractive option for the holder of cash. As prices fall around him the holder of cash sees the relative value of his cash increase, so the fact that he might be getting paid an interest rate close to zero is irrelevant.

The second assumption - that someone who is eager to invest his or her cash in a riskier asset class will choose the stock market - is invalid for the same reason that the first assumption is invalid. The stock market will only be the preferred alternative to cash if stock prices are trending higher. If the major stock indices are perceived to be trendless or in long-term downtrends, the 'cash on the sidelines' will not find its way into the stock market. The vast majority of people only consider buying an investment after they are convinced that the price is trending higher and they only become convinced after prices have already moved substantially higher.

The below chart, provided to us by Nick Laird at http://www.cairns.net.au/~sharefin/Markets/Master.htm, illustrates the growth in money-market fund assets since 1980. Notice how money-fund assets have surged over the past 2 years, a period during which the major stock indices have fared quite poorly. To the extent that the growth in money-fund assets reflects a growth in the total supply of money, some assets will have already benefited from this 'cash on the sidelines'. For example, the real estate market and some sectors of the stock market have done well over the past 2 years. However, the rapid growth in money-fund assets has not done anything for technology and internet stocks and there is certainly no reason to expect that additional rapid growth will be a boon to the former high-fliers.

In summary, it is completely wrong to assume that a mountain of 'cash on the sidelines', such as the 2.4 trillion dollars currently sitting in money-market funds, is necessarily going to find its way into the stock market. The cash will be drawn to whatever assets are rising in price and if no assets are rising in price the cash will remain in an interest-bearing account, even if the interest rate is zero.

The Dollar

Our analysis of the currency market over the past 2 months can be neatly summed-up as follows:
a) The Dollar Index has either already peaked or is close to a peak in terms of both price and time
b) The traders' commitments data and the euro's failure to break its 6-month downtrend suggest that a final surge in the US$ (not necessarily to a new high) is a distinct possibility prior to the start of a substantial decline

Below is a daily chart of the euro showing that this currency is still mired within its downtrend, but that any significant strength from here would create an upside breakout. A daily close above 0.89 would do it.

In the short-term, is a rising US$ a positive or a negative for the US stock market? A rising US$ is often considered to be a net positive for the stock market because it tends to attract foreign capital into the US, although this assumes that a significant proportion of any foreign investment will flow towards equities. As discussed earlier in today's commentary, investment demand shifts towards those investments that are rising in price so such an assumption may not be valid. An argument can also be made that a rising US$ is a negative influence because the foreign-sourced profits of US multi-national corporations are reduced by a stronger Dollar.

For whatever reason, the Dollar has generally moved in the opposite direction to the major US stock indices since the beginning of this year. Referring to the above chart, note that the euro hit the top of its channel in early-January and then again in mid-March. These short-term peaks for the euro (short-term lows for the Dollar) corresponded with short-term peaks in the US stock market.

Further to the above, a continuation of the stock market's short-term downtrend would be more consistent with Dollar strength than Dollar weakness.

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